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- Earnings Set to Improve
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 5 Cyclical Recovery in Domestic Trucking Market Along with Recent M&A Should Support 20%+ Earnings Expansion for Asset- Based Pure-Play’ Truckload Carriers and Intermodal Providers; Margin Pressure a Headwind to Asset-Light Earnings
- Table Title: FIGURE 6 Revised Estimates Reflect Recently Stronger Truckload Environment, KNX-SWFT Merger and Challenging Margin Outlook for ‘Asset-Light’ Providers
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- Graphics Title: FIGURE 9 Based on Expected 3% Rate Increase, We Expect Revenue to Grow In Line With Average Levels Seen During Years of Positive Rate Growth
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 10 Top Line Growth Across Truckload Stocks Boosted by M&A Activity, with Organic Growth Across Freight-Exposed Businesses in the Mid- to High-Single Digit Range
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- Truckload Cost Inflation
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 11 Labor Costs Have Moved Closely with Rates This Cycle (>40% R-Sq.), Suggesting Some Risk to Current Driver Pay and EBIT Expectations
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 12 Core Truckload Business Often Sees Unit Cost Inflation in Excess of Loaded Rate per Mile Increases, Although Utilization Improvement Can Still Drive Margin Expansion
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- Truckload Incremental Margins
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 13 Average Truckload EBIT Growth Estimated at 29% on 35% Incremental Margin Versus Average Since 2000 of 16% EBIT Growth on 22% Incremental Margin in Years with Non-Fuel Rate Increases
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 14 We Expect 2018 Rate Increases to Drive Strongest EBIT Growth Since 2014 and 2010 Following Contraction in ‘16 and Muted Growth in ‘17…
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- Intermodal and Asset-Light Margin Dynamics
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 15 We Expect Incremental Margins Mostly Below Historical Averages Given Lag in Intermodal Contract Re-Pricing and Significant Cost Leverage to Purchased Transportation Across Intermodal and Asset-Light Businesses
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 16 CHRW and EXPD Underperformed Asset-Based Transports Recently as Margins Have Been Pressured by Rising ‘Buy’ Rates…
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- Capital Spending & Cash Flow
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 18 We Expect Capital Expenditures to Increase Next Year Across Asset-Based Truckload and Intermodal Subsectors…
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 19 …Leading to Lower Cash Conversion; Nonetheless, CHRW, EXPD and XPO Should Convert Close to 100% or More of Earnings
- Updated Thoughts on KNX-SWFT
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巴克莱-美股-交通运输业-2018年航空运输业深度展望-2017.10.2-BARCLAYS-North America Transportation Deep Dive on 2018 Freight Outlook
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